Trump talks to Taliban leader for 35 minutes

KABUL: President Donald Trump spoke by phone to the leader of the Taliban, the militant group and the US leader said on Tuesday, days after Washington signed a historic deal with the militants.

Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, said he had “a very good talk with the leader of the Taliban”, without naming him.

The 35-minute call came a day after the militants ended a partial truce and threw into doubt peace talks between Kabul and the militants that are due to begin on March 10, according to the US-Taliban agreement signed on Saturday.

A transcript of the phone call released by the Taliban quoted fighter-turned-negotiator Mullah Baradar urging Trump to “take determined actions in regard to the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan”.

Under the terms of the US-Taliban agreement, foreign forces will quit Afghanistan within 14 months, subject to Taliban security guarantees and a pledge by the insurgents to hold talks with Kabul.

Taliban attack Afghan army bases, throwing peace talks into doubt

But a dispute over a prisoner swap has raised questions about whether the negotiations between Kabul and the Taliban will go ahead.

The agreement includes a commitment to exchange 5,000 Taliban prisoners held by the Afghan government in return for 1,000 captives — something the militants have cited as a prerequisite for talks but which President Ashraf Ghani has refused to do before negotiations start.

Baradar called on Trump to “not allow anyone to take actions that violate the terms of the agreement thus embroiling you even further in this prolonged war”, according to the Taliban transcript.

Apparent differences between the Doha agreement and a joint US-Afghan declaration released in Afghanistan underline the obstacles facing negotiators.

The US-Taliban deal committed to the release of prisoners while the Kabul document only required both sides to determine “the feasibility of releasing” captives.

Since the deal signing, the Taliban have been publicly claiming “victory” over the US.

Taliban attacks

The Taliban carried out dozens of attacks on Afghan army bases, officials said on Tuesday, hours after ending a partial truce and throwing into doubt peace talks between Kabul and the insurgents.

In the last 24 hours the Taliban conducted 33 attacks in 16 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, interior ministry spokesman Nasrat Rahimi said.

“As a result, six civilians were killed and 14 wounded. Eight enemy were also killed, 15 wounded,” he said on Twitter.

Two soldiers were killed in one of the attacks in southern Kandahar province, a government statement said.

An attack in Logar province near Kabul killed five security forces, the provincial governor’s spokesman Didar Lawang said.

The halt to the limited truce, which began on February 22, ends what was a welcome reprieve for ordinary Afghans who have borne the brunt of the deadly violence. But experts said the move was unsurprising as both sides seek to exploit whatever leverage they hold to force the other’s hand.

“Of course violence will go up, was bound to happen. No surprise Ghani balking on prisoner release: one of his few levers,” Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, tweeted. Kabul-based analyst Ahmad Saeedi said the uptick in attacks reflected the insurgents’ belief that “they have to keep the battlefield hot to be able to win on the negotiating table, as they did with the Americans”.

“After the US-Taliban deal, it is illogical to fight. It is time for peace,” said Naqibullah, a 40-year-old government emplo­yee in Kabul, who uses only one name. “The Taliban can’t take the whole nation hostage.”

Published in Dawn, March 4th, 2020

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US launches Air-strike against Taliban to 'defend Afghan forces'

The US launched an airstrike against Taliban fighters to defend Afghan forces on Wednesday, an American military spokesman said, as violence spirals after a string of deadly attacks by the insurgents, throwing the country's nascent peace process into grave doubt.

News of the airstrike in southern Helmand province — the first in 11 days — came hours after US President Donald Trump told reporters he had had a "very good" chat with the Taliban political chief, who on Saturday signed a historic deal with Washington to withdraw foreign forces.

Since the signing in Doha however, the militants have ramped up violence against Afghan forces, ending a partial weeklong truce that provided a rare reprieve to war-weary residents.

US Forces-Afghanistan spokesman Sonny Leggett tweeted that the airstrike took place against Taliban fighters who were "actively attacking" an Afghan forces checkpoint in Helmand province.

"This was a defensive strike to disrupt the attack," he tweeted.

"We call on the Taliban to stop needless attacks and uphold their commitments. As we have demonstrated, we will defend our partners when required."

He said insurgents had carried out 43 attacks on checkpoints in Helmand on Tuesday alone.

The insurgents killed at least 20 Afghan soldiers and policemen in a series of overnight attacks, government officials told AFP on Wednesday, casting a pall over peace talks between Kabul and the Taliban, due to begin on March 10.

"Taliban fighters attacked at least three army outposts in Imam Sahib district of Kunduz last night, killing at least 10 soldiers and four police," said Safiullah Amiri, a member of the provincial council.

A defence ministry official speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity confirmed the army toll, while the provincial police spokesman Hejratullah Akbari confirmed the police fatalities.

The insurgents also attacked police in central Uruzgan province Tuesday night, with the governor's spokesman Zergai Ebadi telling AFP: "Unfortunately, six police were killed and seven wounded".

The news of the attacks came after Trump told reporters in Washington on Tuesday that he had a "very good" relationship with Taliban political chief Mullah Baradar, with the pair speaking on the phone for 35 minutes, according to the insurgents.

"The relationship is very good that I have with the mullah. We had a good long conversation today and you know, they want to cease the violence, they'd like to cease violence also," he said.

But on Wednesday, US military spokesman Leggett warned that the "Afghans and US have complied with our agreements; however, Talibs appear intent on squandering this (opportunity) and ignoring the will of the people for peace".

'Common interest'

Trump has touted the Doha deal as a way to end the bloody, 18-year US military presence in Afghanistan — right in time for his November re-election bid.

Under the terms of the deal, US and other foreign forces will quit Afghanistan within 14 months, subject to Taliban security guarantees and a pledge by the insurgents to hold talks with the national government in Kabul.

The agreement also includes a commitment to exchange 5,000 Taliban prisoners held by the Afghan government in return for 1,000 captives — something the militants have cited as a prerequisite for talks but which President Ashraf Ghani has refused to do before negotiations start.

Trump has said the Taliban and Washington both "have a very common interest" in ending the war.

Since Saturday's deal signing, the Taliban have been publicly claiming "victory" over the US and on Monday they announced they would resume attacks on Afghan national forces.

Ghani's government last week sent a delegation to Qatar to open "initial contacts" with the insurgents, but Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen on Tuesday said the militants would not meet Kabul's representatives except to discuss the release of their captives.

Apparent differences between the Doha agreement and a separate joint US-Afghan declaration made in Afghanistan underline the obstacles facing negotiators.

The US-Taliban deal committed to the release of prisoners, while the Kabul document only required both sides to determine "the feasibility of releasing" captives. #Dawn

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Trump says Certainly looks like Khashoggi is Dead, Saudi Would Suffer

U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters about journalist Jamal Khashoggi's disappearance prior to boarding Air Force One for travel to Montana from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., October 18, 2018. (Reuters Photo)

Certainly it looks like missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi is dead, U.S. President Donald Trump said late Thursday, adding that Saudi Arabia would suffer "very severe" consequences if found to be responsible for his murder.

"It certainly looks that way to me," Trump told reporters at Andrews Air Force Base when asked if Khashoggi was dead. "It's very sad."

Trump, who has insisted that more facts must be known before making assumptions about Khashoggi, did not say on what he based his statement on the writer's demise two weeks ago.

As the U.S. toughened its response to Khashoggi's disappearance, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin pulled out of a major Saudi investment conference Thursday amid global pressure. However, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said earlier Thursday that the United States would give ally Saudi Arabia "a few more days" to probe Khashoggi's alleged murder, again delaying a U.S. response to the mounting scandal.

Pompeo, who reported earlier to President Donald Trump on his trip to Saudi Arabia and Turkey, told journalists at the White House that the Saudis assured him "they will conduct a complete, thorough investigation."

"I told President Trump this morning we ought to give them a few more days to complete that, so that we too have a complete understanding of the facts," Pompeo said.

Only then, Pompeo said, "we can make decisions how or if the United States should respond."

Trump has come under fire from members of Congress for his repeated delays in forming a response, as evidence mounts that Khashoggi, a U.S. resident and Washington Post columnist, was killed and dismembered by Saudi agents inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul more than two weeks ago.

Turkish reports say Khashoggi was brutally murdered and dismembered inside the Saudi Consulate by members of an assassination squad with ties to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Saudis have dismissed those reports as baseless but have yet to explain what happened to Khashoggi, who was seen on video entering the consulate but has not been seen since.

A former regime insider, Khashoggi had become a critic of powerful the crown prince, the point man in ever-tightening military and commercial relations between the Muslim petro-state and the Trump administration.

Call for UN probe

Four prominent human rights and press freedom groups on Thursday urged Turkey to request a United Nations investigation to prevent a "whitewash" of the alleged crime.

The Committee to Protect Journalists, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and Reporters Without Borders said such a probe established by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres would finally clear up the affair.

But the United States, the Saudis' most powerful patron, has been in no rush to escalate the scandal.

Repeatedly giving the Saudi royals the benefit of the doubt, Trump and top officials have instead stressed that the U.S.-Saudi relationship is too important to put at risk.

Trump has repeatedly praised massive Saudi arms purchases, while Pompeo used much of his brief remarks on Thursday to recall Washington's "long strategic relationship with the kingdom of Saudi Arabia."

The Saudis "continue to be an important counter-terrorism partner, they have custody of the two holy sites ... We need to be mindful of that as well," he said.

Market takes a hit

The furor has also blown a hole in next week's Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, which was meant to showcase Prince Mohammed's plans for modernizing the desert kingdom.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he was pulling out Thursday, joining senior ministers from Britain, France and the Netherlands, as well as a string of corporate leaders.

Mnuchin's announcement on Twitter helped push down stock prices on Wall Street.

Mnuchin's withdrawal "raises worry that the administration is being pushed to take a harder line against Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi murder and there could be retaliation," said Karl Haeling of LBBW.

Responses from Saudi Arabia could include selling US Treasuries, or punishing US companies seeking business in the kingdom, Haeling said.

Most analysts don't think Saudi Arabia would cut off oil supplies. Oil prices were off modestly at midday.

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Hurricane Michael gains strength as Floridians flee to higher ground

Waves crash along a pier as Hurricane Michael approaches Panama City Beach in Florida, US on October 9, 2018. Photo: Reuters

Hurricane Michael howled closer to Florida's Gulf shore on Tuesday as a major Category 3 storm, as half a million coastal residents were urged to seek higher ground on the eve of a landfall forecast to bring towering waves and roof-shredding winds.

Michael is projected to plow into Florida's Panhandle at midday today, unleashing potentially devastating waves as high as 13 feet (4 meters) that could rush inland for miles around the storm's center, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of US warned.

By late Tuesday, Michael was causing major disruptions to US oil-and-gas production as it churned north, gathering greater strength over warm Gulf of Mexico waters.

US President Donald Trump declared a state of emergency for the entire state of Florida, freeing up federal assistance to supplement state and local disaster responses.

The last NHC report said the storm was about 200 miles (325 km) from shore and packing sustained winds of up to 125 miles per hour (205 km per hour), after jumping from a Category 2 to Category 3 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson wind scale.

Winds of that magnitude can inflict substantial damage to roofs and walls of even well-constructed homes, according to the National Weather Service. Forecasters said the storm could also spawn tornadoes over parts of Florida and Georgia.

NHC Director Ken Graham said Michael represented a "textbook case" of a hurricane system growing stronger as it drew near shore, in contrast to Hurricane Florence, which struck North Carolina last month after weakening in a slow, halting approach.

Forecasts Tuesday night called for Michael to further intensify into a Category 4 storm, defined as a hurricane with winds of at least 130 mph (209 kph), before making landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend about 40 miles from the center, with tropical storm-force winds reaching 185 miles, Graham said.

The storm is likely to dump prodigious amounts of rain over Florida, Alabama and Georgia, as well as the Carolinas - still reeling from post-Florence flooding - and into Virginia. Up to a foot of rainfall (30 cm) is forecast for some areas.

"This is a storm that is going to be life-threatening in several ways," said Bo Patterson, the mayor of Port St  Joe, Florida, whose small beachfront town lies directly in the storm's projected path.

Florida Governor Rick Scott said Michael was expected to be "the most deadly, destructive storm to the Panhandle in decades."

The region should brace for "major infrastructure damage," specifically to electricity distribution, wastewater treatment systems and transportation networks,  Jeff Byard, associate administrator for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), told reporters on a conference call.

Byard said an estimated 500,000 people were under evacuation orders and advisories in Florida, where residents and tourists were fleeing low-lying areas in at least 20 counties stretching along 200 miles (322 km) of shore in the Panhandle and adjacent Big Bend region.

Among them was Betty Early, 75, a retiree who joined about 300 fellow evacuees huddled on makeshift bedrolls of blankets and collapsed cardboard boxes at an elementary school converted into an American Red Cross shelter in Panama City, near the storm's expected landfall.

She was unsure how well her old, wood-framed apartment block would hold up. "I'm blessed to have a place to come," she told Reuters. "My greatest concern is not having electricity, and living on a fixed income, losing my food."

"THIS STORM COULD KILL YOU"

A hurricane warning was posted along more than 300 miles (483 km) of the coast from the Florida-Alabama border south to the Suwannee River.

"If you don't follow warnings from officials this storm could kill you," said Scott, a Republican running for the US Senate in November's congressional elections.

While the swiftly moving storm is not expected to linger over Florida for long, widespread heavy downpours will likely track inland to flood-stricken areas of the Carolinas even as rain-gorged rivers there begin to recede, National Weather Service meteorologist Ken Widelski told the conference call.

"The last thing we need is more water," said Carolyn Causey, business manager of the Trinity United Methodist Church in Conway, South Carolina. Floodwaters from Florence destroyed two of the church's buildings and gutted three others.

Some of the storm's most significant early impact was to offshore energy production. US producers in the Gulf cut oil production by about 40 percent and natural gas output by 28 percent on Tuesday, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said.

Scott declared a state of emergency in 35 Florida counties, mostly encompassing rural areas known for small tourist cities, beaches, wildlife reserves and Tallahassee, the state capital.

Georgia Governor Nathan Deal declared a state of emergency on Tuesday for 92 counties in his state.

About 2,500 National Guard troops were deployed to assist with evacuations and storm preparations, and more than 4,000 others were on standby. Some 17,000 utility restoration workers were also on call.

In Panhandle counties, most state offices, schools and universities were closed for the rest of the week. Lines at gasoline stations grew as people left. Those who stayed emptied grocery store shelves of water and other supplies.

The last major hurricane to hit the Panhandle was Hurricane Dennis in 2005, according to hurricane center data.

Torrential downpours and flash flooding from the storm over the weekend caused 13 deaths in Central America.

Source: Reuters

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Trump says still he doesn't know anything about WP's Khashoggi, week after his disappearance

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi (R). (AP & Reuters Photos)

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he does not know anything about Washington Post columnist Khashoggi's disappearance he had not yet spoken with Saudi officials about the situation, a week after the journalist disappeared.

Less than a day after saying he was "concerned" for Khashoggi, Trump said he would talk with Saudi officials "at some point."

"I am concerned about it. I don't like hearing about it," Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday. "Hopefully that will sort itself out," the president added.

Turkish Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that an examination will be carried out in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul and that Saudi authorities were open to cooperation.

Dissident journalist and Washington Post contributor Khashoggi, 58, has been missing since last Tuesday after entering the Saudi consulate to gather documents for marriage. His fiancee and friends have said he did not leave the building. The dissident Saudi journalist's Turkish colleagues and several Turkish officials have voiced concerns that he was murdered in the consulate.

Turkish authorities repeatedly said that Khashoggi never left the consulate premises. Footage emerged Tuesday showing Khashoggi entering the building the week before.

Saudi officials and consulate workers denied murder allegations and claimed that Khashoggi left the consulate, but failed to provide any evidence of his exit from the facility.

Turkish police investigating the case said on Saturday that 15 Saudis, including several officials, arrived in Istanbul on two planes and entered the consulate while Khashoggi was inside.

Istanbul prosecutors are investigating the incident, while the consulate said on Twitter that it was working in coordination with Turkish authorities.

Source: Daily Sabah

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IMF cuts global economic growth forecast to 3.7%

A cargo ship at an industrial port in Tokyo. REUTERS/file photo

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019, saying that trade policy tensions and the imposition of import tariffs were taking a toll on commerce while emerging markets struggle with tighter financial conditions and capital outflows.

The new forecasts, released on the Indonesian resort island of Bali where the IMF and World Bank annual meetings are getting underway, show that a burst of strong growth, fueled partly by U.S. tax cuts and rising demand for imports, was starting to wane.

The IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook it was now predicting 3.7 percent global growth in both 2018 and 2019, down from its July forecast of 3.9 percent growth for both years.

The downgrade reflects a confluence of factors, including the introduction of import tariffs between the United States and China, weaker performances by eurozone countries, Japan and Britain, and rising interest rates that are pressuring some emerging markets with capital outflows, notably Argentina, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa.

"U.S. growth will decline once parts of its fiscal stimulus go into reverse," IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said in a statement. "Notwithstanding the present demand momentum, we have downgraded our 2019 U.S. growth forecast owing to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of imports from China and China’s retaliation."

With much of the U.S.-China tariff war's impact to be felt next year, the Fund cut its 2019 U.S. growth forecast to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent previously, while it cut China's 2019 growth forecast to 6.2 percent from 6.4 percent. It left 2018 growth forecasts for the two countries unchanged at 2.9 percent for the United States and 6.6 percent for China.

The eurozone's 2018 growth forecast was cut to 2.0 percent from 2.2 percent previously, with Germany particularly hard hit by a drop in manufacturing orders and trade volumes.

Obstfeld said the IMF does not see a generalized pullback from emerging markets, nor contagion that will spill over to those emerging economies which have stronger economies and have thus far avoided major outflows, such as those in Asia and some oil exporting countries.

"But there is no denying that the susceptibility to large global shocks has risen," Obstfeld said. "Any sharp reversal for emerging markets would pose a significant threat to advanced economies."

Brazil will see a 0.4 percentage-point drop in GDP growth to 1.4 percent for 2018 as a nationwide truckers strike paralyzed much of the economy. Iran, facing a new round of U.S. sanctions next month, also saw its growth forecast cut, the IMF said.

Some energy-rich emerging market countries have fared better due to higher oil prices, with Saudi Arabia and Russia seeing forecast upgrades.

The IMF said the balance of risks was now tilted to the downside, with a higher likelihood that financial conditions will tighten further as interest rates normalize, hurting emerging markets further at a time when U.S.-led demand growth will start to slow as some tax cuts expire.

Trade tensions are expected to continue although Fund officials view U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement as a positive sign.

"Where we are now is we’ve gotten some bad news. Our probability that we would attach to further bad news has gone up," Obstfeld said.

TRADE WAR RISKS

In a new simulation exercise to show trade war risks to the global economy, the IMF modeled the effect of an all-out U.S.-China trade war, coupled with threatened global U.S. automotive tariffs and retaliation from trading partners. The model also includes the effects of a reduction in business confidence that reduces investment and leads to a tightening of financial conditions.

It found that global GDP output under this scenario would fall by more than 0.8 percent in 2020 and remain roughly 0.4 percent lower in the long-term compared to levels without these effects, which "inflict significant costs to the global economy, especially through its impact on confidence and financial conditions."

The effects on the United States and China would be particularly severe, with 2019 GDP losses of more than 0.9 percent in the United States and 1.6 percent in China in 2019.

The exercise assumes that U.S. President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on the remaining $267 billion worth of Chinese goods imports not already under punitive tariffs and China retaliates in kind. It also assumes that Trump imposes a 25 percent tariff on imported cars and auto parts imports.

Adjustments would occur as domestic production displaces higher-priced imports, the model shows, but in the long run, the U.S. GDP would still be 1.0 percent below a baseline without these tariffs, while China's GDP output would be one half percent below the baseline.

Source: Reuters

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US indicts seven Russian military intel agents in global hacking conspiracy

They were indicted in connection to the attack on the OPCW, on Fifa and the US and global anti-doping agencies, and on the US nuclear energy company Westinghouse among others

WASHINGTON: The US Justice Department Thursday indicted seven agents of Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency as part of a joint crackdown with Western allies on a series of major hacking plots attributed to Moscow.

The indictments were announced as Dutch security services said they had thwarted a cyber attack on the global chemical weapons watchdog, the OPCW expelling four Russian agents — and after Britain and Australia blamed the GRU for plots that notably targeted the US Democratic Party and global sports bodies.

John Demers, US Assistant Attorney General for National Security, confirmed the seven agents were indicted in connection to the attack on the OPCW, on football’s governing body FIFA and the US and global anti-doping agencies, and on the US nuclear energy company Westinghouse among others.

The indictments also include charges of money laundering using bitcoin, wire fraud and identify theft.

“Nations like Russia and others that engage in malicious and norm-shattering cyber and influence activities should understand the continuing and steadfast resolve of the United States and its allies to prevent, disrupt and deter such unaccountable conduct,” Demers told a news conference.

“The defendants in this case should know that justice is very patient, its reach is long and its memory is even longer,” he said.

The defendants, all Russian nationals and residents, were named as Aleksei Morenets, 41, Evgenii Serebriakov, 37, Ivan Yermakov, 32, Artem Malyshev, 30, Dmitriy Badin, 27, Oleg Sotnikov, 46, and Alexey Minin, 46.

While the latest case did not arise from US Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into Russian election meddling, it overlaps with it.

US poll meddling

Yermakov, Malyshev, and Badin were among the 12 GRU officers indicted in July this year by Mueller, over alleged interference in the US polls of 2016.

Demers said the operations — dating back to 2014 — “involved sophisticated, persistent and unauthorised access into the victims’ computer networks for the purpose of stealing private or otherwise sensitive information.”

A major part of the indictment details an alleged concerted campaign by the Russians against major international sports organizations in retaliation for the International Olympic Committee’s July 2016 decision to exclude Russian athletes from the 2016 Rio Summer Olympics due to a state-backed cover-up of doping.

The hackers ultimately stole and released personal files of top world athletes including tennis players Venus and Serena Williams, US Olympic gymnast Simone Biles, and celebrated British cyclists Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome.

Russian reaction

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly and angrily rejected similar charges, and Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, reacting to the British and Australian claims, said that the allegations had been mixed together “indiscriminately.”

Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg separately warned Russia to halt its “reckless” behavior.

Canada confirmed Thursday it believes itself to have been targeted by Russian cyber attacks, citing breaches at its centre for ethics in sports and at the Montreal-based World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA).

“The government of Canada assesses with high confidence that the Russian military’s intelligence arm, the GRU, was responsible” for these cyber attacks, the foreign ministry said in a statement.

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About Journalist Jamal’s Trump says he 'concerned' feared killed in Istanbul Consulate

American President Donald J. Trump said on Monday he was concerned about reports of Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who has been missing since last week and Turkish sources have said that authorities believe he was killed inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

"I am concerned about it. I don't like hearing about it," Trump told reporters at the White House. "Hopefully that will sort itself out. Right now nobody knows anything about it."

House Speaker Paul Ryan called the disappearance of Khashoggi "very disturbing" and said the U.S. needed "clear facts" on the situation.

Vice President Mike Pence tweeted late Monday: Deeply troubled to hear reports about Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi. If true, this is a tragic day. Violence against journalists across the globe is a threat to freedom of the press & human rights. The free world deserves answers."

Previously, Republican senator Lindsey Graham said that Saudi Arabia would pay a "heavy price" if allegations that the kingdom killed Khashoggi prove true.

"We agree if there was any truth to the allegations of wrongdoing by the Saudi government it would be devastating to the U.S.-Saudi relationship and there will be a heavy price to be paid — economically and otherwise," Graham tweeted.

Meanwhile, The U.N. said Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was "very concerned" about the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and violence against other journalists.

U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the U.N. chief is following the Khashoggi case "closely".

Khashoggi, journalist and columnist for The Washington Post, has been missing since he entered the consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2.

On Monday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan urged the Saudi Consulate to prove whether or not Khashoggi exited the building after entering, saying the consulate officials "can't get away with [simply] saying 'he left the building'."

Turkish police investigating the case said in a statement Saturday that 15 Saudis, including several officials, arrived in Istanbul on two planes and entered the consulate while Khashoggi was inside.

Source: Daily Sabah

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Trump’s ugly attacks on Blasey Ford could save the Senate for Republicans. Really.

With Brett M. Kavanaugh now on the Supreme Court, Republicans are coalescing around a new closing argument in the midterms: The Democratic response to this whole affair shows them to be lawless, out of control and unfit to govern, so you should keep power in the hands of the GOP, which heroically took on the angry mob in defense of the true victim in this situation: Brett M. Kavanaugh.

In so doing, Republicans appear to be gambling that this will save them the Senate, or perhaps even lead to gains there. But it could cost them the House — yet this appears to be a risk Republicans are willing to take, since that appears likely anyway, and holding or expanding their ranks in the Senate gives Republicans a freer hand to keep remaking the judiciary.

New polling out Monday morning — and some intelligence I gleaned from a senior Democratic strategist on how this is all playing — illustrates the situation.

A new Post/Schar School poll finds that in 69 battleground House districts across the country, Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates overall by 50 percent to 46 percent. The reason this bodes so well for Democrats is that 63 of these districts are held by Republicans. Indeed, to put this in perspective, note that in these same 69 districts, Republicans led in 2016 by 15 points.

Women are driving the Democratic advantage. In these 69 districts, women favor the Democratic candidates by 54 to 40. And once again, the backlash to Trump among college-educated white women that we’ve already seen this cycle appears to be benefiting Democrats: That demographic favors the Dem candidates by an astonishing 62 to 35.

Judging by this polling, at least, it’s hard to see how the Kavanaugh fight is helping Republicans in the battle for the House. First, Trump is motivating Democrats more: In these districts, 40 percent of Dems and Dem-leaning independents say Trump is the single most important issue in their vote, vs. only 15 percent who say that on the GOP side. And among those who cite judicial nominations as an extremely important motivator, Dems lead by 50 to 47. Again, almost all these districts are held by Republicans.

The story is very different in the Senate

Over the weekend, Trump explained why he decided to attack Christine Blasey Ford. Trump said that “I thought I had to even the playing field,” adding: “It was a very unfair situation. So I evened the playing field. Once I did that, it started to sail through.”

A senior Democratic strategist who is closely tracking internal data explained to me in a fascinating way how Trump’s behavior is playing politically. He tells me that in the red states that will decide control of the Senate — states where Democratic incumbents are fighting to hold on — many voters came to see the battle over Kavanaugh’s fate as inextricably tied to Trump — that is, as all about protecting and rallying to the side of Trump himself.

In other words, Kavanaugh was transformed from a generic conservative hatched in a Federalist Society lab into a Trumpist. This may explain Trump’s attacks on Ford — aside from succumbing to his usual depravity, he may have sensed that he needed to get GOP senators more fearful of the wrath of the Trump base. It also helps explain why the White House advised Kavanaugh to show his feelings at his hearing, which he did by lashing out in anger and histrionic self-pity, while vowing partisan retribution.

This Democratic strategist tells me this depiction of Kavanaugh as Trumpian victim may have worked in red states with competitive Senate races. For all the talk about white women shifting against Trump, this strategist says that many red-state white women came to see Kavanaugh as a sympathetic figure who is being “railroaded.” The strategist tells me these women associated this battle with their own husbands, sons and grandsons, asking themselves: “Why should 35-year-old accusations that are uncorroborated derail his entire career?”

The Kavanaugh-as-victim strategy

All this helps explain what we’re now seeing from Senate Republicans. In North Dakota, where endangered Democrat Heidi Heitkamp courageously came out against Kavanaugh in a state Trump won by 36 points, her GOP opponent, Kevin Cramer, just ripped into the #MeToo movement. Cramer mocked the very idea that we should believe women who claim to have been sexually assaulted, scoffing “that you’re just supposed to believe somebody because they said it happened,” and deriding #MeToo as a “movement towards victimization.”

This is particularly absurd in light of the mass movement among Republicans toward casting Kavanaugh and Republicans as the true victims in this whole affair. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell now claims public demonstrations of anger at Kavanaugh and Senate Republicans helped unify them behind Trump’s nominee. (This is nonsense, as Republicans were always going to support him no matter what.) The chair of the Republican National Committee laughably asserts that Kavanaugh was the victim of a “smear campaign” by “the left’s angry mob.” (This neatly reveals the feigned GOP willingness to give a hearing to Ford’s claims as hollow.)

And then there’s Sen. Lindsey O. Graham of South Carolina, who has emerged as the twisted, grimacing face of right-wing rage at the very idea that Ford’s claims ever deserved a full and serious public examination. On Fox News over the weekend, Graham unleashed a stream of phony outrage about supposed efforts to “humiliate and railroad” Kavanaugh and “destroy his life.” Graham added that he hopes Republicans make this central to the case against Democrats in “purple” House districts.

As that Democratic strategist’s intelligence suggests, this bad-faith-saturated dudgeon very well may work in red states and thus may save the Senate for Republicans. But in endangered GOP-held House districts in suburban and more bluish areas? Good luck with that.

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Dollar Tree, and its customers, feel pain of tariffs on Chinese imports

US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin faced tough questions from Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill Thursday. Mnuchin's appearance came as China tried to step up pressure on Washington in their growing tariff war. (July 12) AP.

Few stores, and shoppers, are as affected by the Trump administration’s escalating trade fight with China as Dollar Tree and its massive base of low- and middle-income customers.

Late last month, President Donald Trump slapped a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. Unlike previous rounds of tariffs on Chinese products, which largely taxed industrial goods, the new duty touches everyday consumer items. That's the sweet spot for the Chesapeake, Virginia-based Dollar Tree, which owns 15,000 Dollar Tree and Family Dollar discount variety stores across the U.S., and may soon need to pull items off shelves, or take other steps to offset the higher costs. The tariff may also hit communities if the company pulls back on store openings and hiring.

Many of its inexpensive products can be made only in China, company executives said. Dollar Tree imports about 42 percent of its products, while Family Dollar imports about 23 percent, according to estimates from the Telsey Advisory Group, a research and consulting firm. Most of the shipments are from China, the firm said.

The tariff will hit about 10 percent of Dollar Tree's merchandise, or several thousand items, including household, health and beauty products, food, hardware and electronics, the company's chief executive, Gary Philbin, said at a hearing before the U.S. trade representative in late August.

The higher tariff is forcing Dollar Tree to pay more to import the goods. It can eat the higher costs, pass them on to customers or find a way to offset them.

While most discount store shoppers could feel the pinch, customers of the so-called dollar stores are especially budget-constrained and would be hurt by what is essentially a new tax on their purchases. And higher costs lay ahead: The new tariff is set to rise to 25 percent on Jan. 1.

Philbin said in a letter to the U.S. trade representative last month that his company simply can’t raise prices at Dollar Tree, which sells everything for $1. At Family Dollar, the company has a little more wiggle room, with about 40 percent of items priced at $1 and the vast majority costing $3 or less.

As a result, if the U.S.-China standoff isn’t resolved soon, customers are likely to see slightly less merchandise in stores, smaller packages at the same price for certain items and perhaps some higher prices at Family Dollar, Philbin said. Dollar Tree also may pull back investment and hiring in communities if its profits fall, he said.

More than 60 percent of Dollar Tree’s shoppers – at both the Dollar Tree and Family Dollar chains – have less than $40,000 in annual household income, Philbin wrote in his letter to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. Half of that group earns less than $20,000 a year.

“They truly are among the most vulnerable U.S. consumers,” Philbin said in the letter. At the hearing, he said they depended on the stores’ offerings “to make ends meet.”

Among the products affected by the tariffs are: vegetables, perfume, shampoo, makeup, dog leashes, handbags, paper, bed sheets, dishes, cups, carpet, batteries, clothing, hats, tweezers, screwdrivers and lamps.

“The U.S. consumer will suffer,” Philbin said at the hearing.

Company officials would not comment for this article.

Outside a Dollar Tree in Annandale, Virginia, last week, Edgar Escobar, 48, said he shops at one of the chain’s area stores about twice a week, buying staples such as bread, soda and candy, as well as plastic containers and mirrors.

“I like it because everything is cheap,” said Escobar, a house painter. If the store carries fewer items because of the tariffs, he said he would clip supermarket coupons but still couldn’t match the deals he gets at Dollar Tree.

Joseph Feldman, analyst at Telsey Advisory Group, believes Dollar Tree will likely rely mostly on reducing package sizes, a tactic shoppers will notice. “The consumer is really smart,” he said.

The current 10 percent tariff likely will have some effect on the stores in coming weeks, Feldman said. But he added, “You can probably figure out a way to deal with it,” in part by absorbing some of the added cost and coping with narrower profit margins.

Philbin told analysts in August that the company “can also attempt to negotiate price concessions” with suppliers.

But the 25 percent duty in January will take a bigger toll, Feldman said.

Philbin said the tax will make Dollar Tree’s stores less competitive with higher-priced discount retailers.

“This could result in slower growth,” he said at the hearing. The tariffs, if sustained, would shave company revenue by tens of millions of dollars a year, he estimated.

That, he said, could slow new store openings, limit the need for new distribution centers and curtail hiring.

The company opened 603 stores last year and has been adding more than 6,000 retail associates a year. The tariffs “put these new jobs and possibly existing jobs at risk,” Philbin said. Dollar Tree employs about 175,000 workers.

The duties also threaten Dollar Tree’s plans to open a new distribution center every 12 to 18 months, he said. Each generates about $100 million in investment and about 400 new jobs.

Philbin said many of its products can be sourced only from China because they’re crafted or packaged by hand, incurring labor costs that would be exorbitant in the U.S. Also, he said, the U.S. lacks some injection plastic molding techniques and sufficient production and distribution capacity for many products.

One factory in China has expanded to more than 400 injection molding machines to meet Dollar Tree’s demand, Philbin said.

“That type of production capacity simply does not exist anywhere outside of China,” he wrote in the letter.

The company, he said, is exploring production in foreign countries outside China. But, he said at the hearing, “We believe it will take two to four years to improve their supply chains.”

In Annandale, Kay Durra, 41, was at the second of three Dollar Tree outlets she was hitting that night as she tried to cobble together enough feather boas for a Halloween flamingo costume.

She typically buys party decorations and craft items at the shop that cost a third as much as they do at traditional stores, as well as snacks. “They have pretty interesting stuff you can’t get anywhere else,” said Durra, a retirement administrator.

“It would be pretty disappointing if they didn’t have the variety of things or the quantity (in a package) that you’d expect," she said. You'd have to go to (big-box stores) and pay more.”

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Hurricane Michael Forecast to hit Gulf Coast with 120-mph Winds

Forecast of Hurricane Michael

The National Hurricane Center expects Hurricane Michael to pick up strength as it approaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Meteorologist Ashley Batey talks about the timing of landfall along the Florida panhandle. USA TODAY

Hurricane Michael formed Monday morning in the Caribbean Sea and is heading for a landfall as a major hurricane with 120-mph winds along the Gulf Coast by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts, the National Hurricane Center said. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night and should make landfall Wednesday afternoon or evening.

"Michael could produce three life-threatening hazards along portions of the northeastern Gulf Coast: storm surge, heavy rainfall and hurricane-force winds," according to the hurricane center.

 A hurricane watch has been posted for the Florida Gulf Coast, all the way from the Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River, Florida. A storm surge of up to 12 feet is forecast for a large section of the Florida coast.

According to the hurricane center, one potential impact from a Category 3 hurricane is that "electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes."

A major hurricane is a Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane, which has winds of at least 111 mph. If the forecast is correct, it would be only the 11th major hurricane to hit Florida in October since records began in 1851, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.

As the storm approached, Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared an emergency in 26 counties Sunday night, including Escambia and Santa Rosa.

“Take this seriously and keep your family safe,” Scott said from Bay County on Monday. “We know that a storm like Michael can be devastating and deadly.”

Florida State University announced it will close from Tuesday through Friday of this week because of the approaching hurricane.

Scott said 500 Florida National Guard members had been activated for planning, logistics and response to the storm and another 5,000 stood at the ready.

"Do not take a chance on storm surge," Scott said. "This storm will be life threatening and really dangerous. This is coming very fast."

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee said "this is a storm to definitely take very seriously. Storm preparations should be rushed to completion today and Tuesday."

Early Monday afternoon, Michael was centered about 20 miles off the western tip of Cuba and about 600 miles south of Tallahassee, Florida. It was moving to the north at 7 mph.

After the storm moves inland, it could dump additional unwanted rain on the Carolinas, which were battered by Florence in September. "Areas hit hard by Florence may face disruptions to ongoing cleanup efforts or renewed flooding depending on the track of the storm," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski said.

Michael is the seventh hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific, Hurricane Sergio was spinning about 1,300 miles southwest of Mexico's Baja Peninsula. It's forecast to move toward the Baja this week, eventually making landfall as a tropical storm by week's end.

And in non-hurricane weather news, heavy rain from a separate system is forecast to drench the central U.S. on Monday. Flash flooding is possible in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.

Contributing: Karl Etters, the Tallahassee Democrat.

#Michael could produce three life-threatening hazards along portions of the northeastern Gulf Coast: storm surge, heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force winds, with storm surge and hurricane watches in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. pic.twitter.com/JZENNHSQTK

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 8, 2018

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